12 August 2019

If it doesn't happen suddenly it's not new news; it's old news.

Good news is gradual. Bad news is sudden.

If the world is getting warmer slowly it's not news. It's only news if it happens quickly. People who want to slow the warming or who sell news for a living, or both, must speed up this perceived slow warming to make it newsworthy. Alarmism is the answer. Sudden weather events are good for this, especially when the weather event can be said to be evidence of the Warming. The nomenclature of this issue has therefore consciously progressively moved over the last 30 years from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change" to "The Climate Emergency" in the service of this imperative.

But if the weather doesn't comply with this narrative?  What if the weather event'shows coldness, not heat? Is there anyone out there with an incentive to accelerate a slow cooling to make it newsworthy; that the warming is slowing? This could after all be good news. The planet may not be heading for a catastrophic warming after all.

"But,", you say, "get with the program. Everyone knows the world is warming. Where's your perspective? You couldn't possibly want to promote the notion that the world might not have a global scale warming problem. That would be irresponsible."

"But", I say, "there are from time to time some unsettling indicators that we may not be so doomed to an imminent warming catastrophe after all. What should we make of these inconvenient factoids?"

Saturday 10 August 2019 was apparently the coldest August day ever recorded in Orange, New South Wales, with the temperature only barely getting above zero degrees for a few hours.  Has this been reported on anywhere other than Orange? Doesn't look like it. The Bureau of Meteorology seems not to want to tell us about this event.

I speculate that it might work like this. Weather reporting is mainly about forecasting weather, not for the general public the recording of what the weather actually did. The Bureau forecasts the expected temperatures, often for hotter than happens, and it publishes and gives prominence to its forecasts on its website. Then the weather happens. It is then recorded as an "observation" by the Bureau, but its publication of its "observations" are delayed for a few days. It can therefore not be readily observed how the BOM may have overestimated its forecast. There is no incentive for BOM to report both it's errors and that the weather is not conforming to its house view of warming. To report on colder outcomes would not be hot news. Hence we're continually led to believe our world is warming and few are going to be bothered by some irksome anomalies . Warming is bad. And this needs to be news. But what if our world is cooling slowly? Would that ever be reported as good news? Nah. Not if it's not sudden. And it ain't.

Maybe we're approaching this whole climate problem from the wrong perspective. Lionel Shriver in the Spectator suggests the issue could  just be us. Yes. Us. People. Here's what she's suggesting:

"The biggest driver of climate change and every other global headache you care to name — species extinction, deforestation, desertification, ocean acidification, pollution, fresh water scarcity, oceanic plastic, soil erosion, ‘irregular’ migration — is people. Too many of them, and born too fast.At least another 2.3 billion more neighbors are on their way by 2050, and they will all aspire — understandably — to a western lifestyle. So if you care about these issues, supporting organizations that provide people living in Africa and the Middle East with access to reliable contraception is more effective than gluing yourself to a bridge."

So stop breeding people. You are the problem. Not the solution. 

Humanism turns out to be a plague not the triumph of civilization. 

Whilst digesting this conclusion you might also, if you live here, enjoy the fine skiing conditions in the Australian ski fields this winter. You know the ones. The ski fields that were going to go broke a decade or so ago because the're wouldn't be enough snow anymore due to global warming. They  apparently however are continuing to operate quite profitably. Just don't procreate whilst there and don't make any awkward observations or worse, seek to draw any conclusions, from the fact that there is enough snow there after all.

But may be its all hokum after all. Is Global Warming just the latest in countless doomsday predictions that are trotted out so that elites can control rubes with scary stuff? That's what Issues and Insights are suggesting here. Let's party.